Crowd of type 1 kids in my town

General
1

 I believe there might be a type 1 epidemic here. There are 3 type 1's in my daughter's K-4 elementary school. There are maybe 300 kids in the school. I am not sure how many are in the next school which has grades 5 and 6 but I know there is at least one because she was in my daughter's elementary school last year. There is at least one in the middle school which is grades 7 and 8. The high school has at least a half dozen. A friend of my wife was asked to be a substitute nurse in our district. She didn't accept because she is afraid of trying to manage all the type 1 kids!!! My town has a population of about 20,000. 

WIthin a block of my house there are three kids with type 1. All three are unrelated. 

Is this a lot? It seems like it to me. 

 

2

That does sound like a lot.  In my town and two neighboring towns there's a definite type 1 cluster.  My high school, with 1,300 kids, has at least 10 kids with type 1.  7 of them are in my grade.  Actually, the Massachusetts Department of Pubic Health is researching the cluster.  Here's an article about it:

http://www.wellesleywestonmagazine.com/winter09/diabetes.htm

 

3

NIce article. It seems that some of those people have a strong genetic link to explain it. 

I don't think the discounting of the cow's milk link is accurate though. There is a strong association to early cow's milk consumption. 

The theory is that a leaky gut allows bovine insulin into the blood where it is attacked by the immune system. My daughter used to get a 

nasty rash from cows milk when she was younger. If she has a lot of it it will still do it. 

4

According to ADA, approximately 0.17-0.25% of people under the age of 20 have type 1 and this rate is thought to be on the rise.  So in a school of 300, you would expect perhaps one child with type 1.  In a town of 20,000 you could expect 210 people (0.1%) of any age to have type 1.

(and in my opinion, any nurse that is afraid of type 1 is in the wrong line of work to begin with or maybe that nurse is just lazy).

5

[quote user="spaghettio"]According to ADA, approximately 0.17-0.25%[/quote] [quote user="spaghettio"]n a town of 20,000 you could expect 210 people (0.1%)[/quote]

I am confused where you get these two numbers. If I take the high end, I get 50 people (.25% of 20,000) under the age of 20. Then If I multiple that by 5 (and that would be assuming that every diabetic lives until age 100) I get 250. Not to mention, if that rate is on the rise, than less older people should be diagnosed than younger. Therefore, I would imagine the number to be around 150 or lower for a town of 20,000. I still find this to be high, so I was curious if you could send me your resources. I always love looking at this stuff. Especially after reading A Civil Action I always tend to be attentive to clusters.

6

I was just thinking too, I thought total diabetics (type 1,2,3,4,5 AND 6) make up around 10% of the population. I also thought that type 1's are 10% of the diabetic population. That would make the type one population .01% of the total population. In a town of 20,000 that would mean that 2 people should be type 1. 

7

[quote user="Dan"]

I am confused where you get these two numbers. If I take the high end, I get 50 people (.25% of 20,000) under the age of 20. Then If I multiple that by 5 (and that would be assuming that every diabetic lives until age 100) I get 250. Not to mention, if that rate is on the rise, than less older people should be diagnosed than younger. Therefore, I would imagine the number to be around 150 or lower for a town of 20,000. I still find this to be high, so I was curious if you could send me your resources.

[/quote]

sorry.  I think I did my math too early in the morning.  Yes, in a town of 20,000 there could be 50 type 1's using the child prevalence rate - but not everyone in the town is a child.

The ADA and CDC websites cite different numbers for the under the age of 20 category with CDC saying 0.17% and ADA saying 0.25%.  NIAID website indicates  0.12% of the entire American population has type 1.  So 0.12% of 20,000 is 24 people. They also point out there are regional and cultural differences.

Why did you multiply your number by 5?

8

I multiplied by 5 because your number is only type 1's under the age of 20. If I say there are five groups, each with an equal number of diabetics something like this comes out:

Ages 0-19: 50 people

20-39: 50

40-59: 50 

60-79: 50

80-99: 50

This doesn't take into account the average life span of around 78 years, the average life span of a type one diabetic of around 67 years, or the changing number of people diagnosed with type one diabetes. The number, 250 people, that I reached was a very crude number that reflected simply the highest amount of people that could possibly be type one theoretically with the only number that you gave. 

I checked out the ADA website. This is the one I went to http://www.diabetes.org/diabetes-basics/diabetes-statistics/. I think they have messed up on the numbers. They state for people under the age of 20, "186,300, or 0.22% of all people in this age group have diabetes". This number reflects both type one and type two I presume because the next statistic listed is "About 1 in every 400 to 600 children and adolescents has type 1 diabetes". This number (1 out of 400) reflects .25%. How can .22% of the population be type 1 and 2, and then .25% of the population be type one? I will check their sources and report back, something seems a little fishy. 

9

[quote user="Terry"]

NIce article. It seems that some of those people have a strong genetic link to explain it. 

I don't think the discounting of the cow's milk link is accurate though. There is a strong association to early cow's milk consumption. 

The theory is that a leaky gut allows bovine insulin into the blood where it is attacked by the immune system. My daughter used to get a 

nasty rash from cows milk when she was younger. If she has a lot of it it will still do it. 

[/quote]

There has been a link between cow's milk and T1. However, from what I read about a year ago, "leaky gut syndrome" is something that was made-up by a British GI doc trying to "prove" that vaccines cause autism in order to help his client win a lawsuit. As of last year, I read that no medical research has found it to exist. I'd imagine cow's milk could set off an auto-immune reaction if if nothing was leaky, lol. Jessica may know more about this because of her sons' history.

10

[quote user="Dan"]

the average life span of a type one diabetic of around 67 years, or the changing number of people diagnosed with type one diabetes.

[/quote]

Dan, you're scaring me! Will I never retire? I'm hoping that number is low because it averages in young children who die before a proper diagnosis, etc.

11

Sarah I feel the same way about my daughter.  I hope the number is low because this was before all the technical advancements of the last decade.

12

The number has to be low because technological improvements in the past 20+ years have led to better control from an early age, which presumably would lead to fewer complications and early deaths.  If diabetes kills me before I start to lose my mind/the rest of my body, I will be very sad.

13

[quote user="Sarah"]Dan, you're scaring me! Will I never retire? I'm hoping that number is low because it averages in young children who die before a proper diagnosis, etc.[/quote]

 That number is very low, but don't worry, it shouldn't scare you. Think of the number of outliers on the low side; people who go undiagnosed, people who don't take care of themselves. Then think of the number of outliers on the high side; people who live past the average lifespan (78) and are type 1 diabetic. There are not too many. The only thing the average lifespan of the type one diabetic should tell you is that you should take care of yourself. Since you are here on Juvenation, I take it that you want to do that.

Oh and I checked out the CDC website and it did verify an earlier post I made. Here are the relevant statistics I see from the CDC website (http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pubs/pdf/ndfs_2007.pdf). "In adults, type 1 diabetes accounts for 5% to 10% of all diagnosed cases of diabetes".Also,  "Prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes among people aged 20 years or older, United States, 2007" is "Age 20 years or older: 23.5 million or 10.7% of all people in this age group have diabetes."

This would again support my idea that if around 10% of the American population is diabetic and around 10% of the diabetic population is type one than we, as type ones, make up .01% of the total population. In a town of 20,000 that means 2 people should be type one. In this case I see a cluster and I do not support the milk theory. If milk was the cause than the national rate would be higher. Unless of course everyone in the town is drinking the same milk. Maybe it is something environmental, something that is exclusive to the town.

14

some of my family that use to live down south and then moved up here said there is hardly anybody with type one down there way like they know no one 

and here up north there are tons of people with it

???

15

At our school k-5 we have 5 t-1's over the past two years 3 or 4 went to jr high. There are about 500 kids in the school this year.

16

The numbers don't sound crazy to me.  I went to schools in 3 different states growing up and there were always a couple type 1 kids at each school.  Obviously the bigger schools had more of them.

Doubt cows milk has much of a connection.  After all, almost every child drinks cow's milk. 

Where is your town located?  I've seen a couple research studies about the predominance of type 1 in northern climates, so it's supposed to be more common in Canada, UK, Norway, etc.  Some doctors think that lack of Vitamin D (from sunlight) can increase chances of developing diabetes. 

 

17

[quote user="jennagrant"]

The numbers don't sound crazy to me.  I went to schools in 3 different states growing up and there were always a couple type 1 kids at each school.  Obviously the bigger schools had more of them.

Doubt cows milk has much of a connection.  After all, almost every child drinks cow's milk. 

Where is your town located?  I've seen a couple research studies about the predominance of type 1 in northern climates, so it's supposed to be more common in Canada, UK, Norway, etc.  Some doctors think that lack of Vitamin D (from sunlight) can increase chances of developing diabetes. 

 

[/quote]

WHile studies are still inconclusive there are many many studies showing a relationship between early and frequent cow's milk consumption and type 1 diabetes.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/keeping-babies-off-cows-milk-may-prevent-diabetes/709737/0

This one was released just last Wednesday. Finnish researcher have been showing the relationship for years.
Cow's milk is for cows apparently and not humans.

 

 

18

3 kids out of 300 have it in my daughter's school. That is 1%. Our doctor said the average is 1 out of 400 to 600.

19

[quote user="Terry"]

[quote user="jennagrant"]

The numbers don't sound crazy to me.  I went to schools in 3 different states growing up and there were always a couple type 1 kids at each school.  Obviously the bigger schools had more of them.

Doubt cows milk has much of a connection.  After all, almost every child drinks cow's milk. 

Where is your town located?  I've seen a couple research studies about the predominance of type 1 in northern climates, so it's supposed to be more common in Canada, UK, Norway, etc.  Some doctors think that lack of Vitamin D (from sunlight) can increase chances of developing diabetes. 

 [/quote]

WHile studies are still inconclusive there are many many studies showing a relationship between early and frequent cow's milk consumption and type 1 diabetes.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/keeping-babies-off-cows-milk-may-prevent-diabetes/709737/0

This one was released just last Wednesday. Finnish researcher have been showing the relationship for years.
Cow's milk is for cows apparently and not humans.

 [/quote]

You have to take every research study with a grain of salt until it's repeatedly proven with large test groups.  The milk study sounds like a loose connection at best.  The article itself says:

"However, the pilot study was not large enough to tell if avoiding cow's milk reduced the actual risk of diabetes. Eight percent of the cow's milk recipients developed type 1 diabetes, compared to 6 percent who got the special formula, a difference that was not statistically significant.

"We did not expect a 100 percent prevention of clinical disease," Knip said in an e-mail.

All of the babies in the test -- and those in the larger study now underway -- have a genetic susceptibility to diabetes and had at least one family member with type 1 diabetes. They were followed until their 10th birthday."

So this study not only didn't show a statistically significant difference, but it also used a test group of people genetically prone to type 1. 

Unfortunately, most researchers don't follow the scientific method much anymore.  Instead they tend to publish prematurely,and then are slow to disprove their own false findings because the grant and federal funding disappears when they do so.  When research is disproven it's also not widely reported. 

With the numbers Terry has in his neighborhood, it might be important to know where he lives geographically, and what ethnicity his neighbors are.  For whatever reason folks of Finish and Nordic descent are more likely to develop type 1.  The kids in his neighborhood may also have other risk factors that we don't know about.  It's hard to guess, but again I really doubt milk has anything to do with it.

20

There are actually quite a number of studies that link milk and diabetes. Many of them carried out in Finland. In that instance the study was to see if cow's milk proteins were hydrolyzed if it would reduce the incidence. Hydrolyzing the milk protein didn't help prevent type 1. Both groups consumed cows milk. 8 % and 6% of the kids getting type 1 is pretty high. I know my daughter gets a nasty immune response from drinking cows milk. 

 

Here is another study. 

 

http://diabetes.diabetesjournals.org/content/49/6/912.full.pdf

A google search yields these results. It is definitely a subject that calls for more study.

http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=Finland+type+1+cow+milk&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8